Future increases in fire risk

Here we show future fire risk relative to some of the country's historically highest-risk forests. By the end of the 21st century, even under a low emissions scenario, risks to forests in much of the Western US are projected to increase by 5x compared to current risk in California.*

Emissions scenario

1.0xincrease

2.5xincrease

5.0xincrease

Year

2070

20202030204020502060207020802090

* We define a baseline as the 97th percentile of risk across US forests over 1990-2019, which is roughly equivalent to the risk in California — a notably high-risk region — over that period.